Urbin Report

Friday, March 06, 2009

Obama's Bear Market

That is what Bloomberg is calling it.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 20 percent since Inauguration Day, the fastest drop under a new president in at least 90 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
...
“People thought there would be a brief Obama rally, and that hasn’t happened,”
...
“It’s the Obama bear market,” said Dan Veru, who helps oversee $2.8 billion at Palisade Capital Management in Fort Lee, New Jersey. “We don’t know what the rules are in so many different areas the government is touching.”
...
“Obama should be listening to the stock market more than talking to it,” said Kenneth Fisher, the billionaire chairman of Woodside, California-based Fisher Investments Inc., which oversees $22 billion. “He hasn’t gotten out of the gate well.”


I've seen theories put out that Team Obama is tanking the economy on purpose.

Personally, I'm not buying it for the simple reason I don't buy into most conspiracy theories, they place too great a burden of competence on the government.

Occam's Razor provides a simpler and much more likely explanation. These guys are in over their heads, they aren't sure of what to do and the market is responding to that lack of confidence. That the one thing Team BO is sure of is they want to jack up taxes, including that "Cap & Trade" scheme that is going to hit the lower economic end of the population hardest, and that probably isn't blowing up Wall Street's collective skirt either.

Michelle Malkin calls it "The Steve Urkel-ization of the economy."
It's worth a click just for the nifty Photoshop work.

Update: Michael Boskin writes in the Wall Street Journal that it is Obama's radicalism that is killing the Dow.
It's hard not to see the continued sell-off on Wall Street and the growing fear on Main Street as a product, at least in part, of the realization that our new president's policies are designed to radically re-engineer the market-based U.S. economy, not just mitigate the recession and financial crisis.

The illusion that Barack Obama will lead from the economic center has quickly come to an end. Instead of combining the best policies of past Democratic presidents -- John Kennedy on taxes, Bill Clinton on welfare reform and a balanced budget, for instance -- President Obama is returning to Jimmy Carter's higher taxes and Mr. Clinton's draconian defense drawdown.

Mr. Boskin writes there are some good points to BHO's budget, but that negatives far exceed the positives. The negatives include tax hikes during an economic downturn, and the implementation of far left extremist radical "environmental" (more accurately "watermelon") policy that starts heavy fines on fossil fuels, cutting off access to domestic oil, natural gas & shale oil deposits immediately, while funding "greener" energy technologies that will not put a watt of energy into America for at least a decade.

If you read my tech blog, you'll see I'm a big fan of domestic sources of alternate energy, but cutting off immediate sources of energy before alternate are ready is just sacrificing the American economy on the alter of an extremist radical movement that has been high jacked by socialists.

Mr. Boskin is a professor of economics at Stanford University, and goes into more detail in his article. Stop by and read it.