Urbin Report

Monday, October 13, 2008

The PUMA map

The PUMAs over at HillBuzz are making some interesting claims.

The polls, in our opinon, are wrong, and the internal numbers we see coming out of NC, VA, PA, OH, IN and FL show McCain wins in all of those states (there is no mathematical possibility for Obama to win without taking PA, OH, or FL).

So, I surfed over to Real Clear Politics' Electoral College map and made some adjustments based on the PUMA's "internal numbers." Right now, they have Obama 277, McCain 158 (counting only "solid" states, it's 211/143).
Here is what that map looks like if the PUMAs are on to something.

That is one heck of a game changer, and puts things a Hell of a lot closer.
Polls have been all over the place this year, so place all the credit on this "what if" exercise you want.