Urbin Report

Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Comparing predictions

Glenn Reynolds responds to an email in part by comparing predictions of those on the extreme left with what actually happened:

* German politicians predicted: "Millions of people in Baghdad will be victims of bombs and rockets."

What happened: The antiwar Iraqi Body Count site lists an estimated 4,000-6,000 civilians and fighters were lost in the startup months of the War in Iraq.

* Ted Kennedy predicted:"A war on Saddam might also cause an unprecedented humanitarian crisis with an estimated 900,000 refugees, a pandemic and an environmental disaster as Saddam lit the oilfields on fire."

Actual Result: The oil fields were not set ablaze, no pandemic.

* The UN predicted... It is also likely that in the early stages there will be a large segment of the population requiring treatment for traumatic injuries, either directly conflict-induced or from the resulting devastation. Given the population outlined earlier, as many as 500,000 could require treatment to a greater or lesser degree as a result of direct or indirect injuries.

What happened: Again, the antiwar Iraqi Body Count site lists an estimated 4,000-6,000 civilians and fighters lost in the startup months of the War in Iraq.

* Ted Kennedy also predicted: "The U.S. could run through "battalions a day at a time" and that the fighting would look like "the last fifteen minutes of 'Private Ryan.'"

Actual Results: Although each fatality is a tragic loss for America, this is still one of most successful military campaigns the US has ever fought.


Go read the whole thing. It's worth the time.