Urbin Report

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

A summary at 2:15 AM

It's just after 2AM and the President is still ahead in Ohio by just over 100,000 votes.
Kerry has yet to concede, and probably won't. Given the estimated number of provisional ballots in Ohio, he could still win the state.
If the majority of them are allowed and a large majority of them are for Kerry.

He's lacking two key items that allowed Vice-President Gore to drag the election out in 2000.

Number one, he's losing the popular vote. The President is currently ahead by about three million votes.
That will probably narrow as more votes from California are added, but it doesn't look like Kerry can pull ahead.

Number two, Kerry has been trailing in the electorial vote all night. Gore had the lead, and then lost by the one vote.
My current count is Bush 276 and Gore 221.

MSNBC just came out and said that based on the districts in Ohio that haven't reported yet, the President's lead could actually expand.

It also looks like the Republicans have increased in their majority in the Senate as well.