Urbin Report

Friday, August 27, 2004

If the LA times admits it...

As the Captain points out, "Bear in mind that these results come from the LA Times, which routinely oversamples Democrats in its polling. If the Times says that a Republican has edged ahead, you can bet that Kerry's internal polling shows something significantly worse."
What is this ground breaking news that causes the LA Times to print news that disagrees with its editorial policy?
Nothing less than:

Bush Overtaking Kerry In Key Battleground States

Rather unsettling for the ABB crowd to say the least.
Here is some key data:
According to the surveys, Bush has opened leads within the margin of error in Ohio, Wisconsin and Missouri — states at the top of both campaigns' priority lists.

In Missouri, Bush leads among registered voters 46% to 44%; in Wisconsin, he leads 48% to 44%; and in Ohio, the president holds a 49% to 44% advantage, the surveys found. ...

In 2000, Al Gore carried Wisconsin by fewer than 6,000 votes; Bush won Missouri by almost 80,000 votes and Ohio by almost 167,000 votes.

All three states have attracted enormous spending on television ads from the two candidates and the independent groups supporting them.

Times polls in June showed Kerry and Bush tied in Wisconsin, Kerry holding a statistically insignificant one-point advantage in Ohio, and the president leading 48% to 42% in Missouri. Compared to those numbers, the race has tightened somewhat in Missouri and edged slightly toward Bush in Wisconsin and Ohio.

There are still two months to go, but it is starting to look like this election won't be as close as the last one.
Boots & Sabers called it on 8/26/04.